Combining Augmented Analytics Time Series Forecasting Models with Planning

Objective

After completing this lesson, you will be able to combine an augmented analytics time series forecasting model with planning in SAP Analytics Cloud.

Enhance a Business Plan with Predictive Model Outputs

Predictive Analytics Naturally Complements Planning

Predictive forecasts are based on actual historical data. These predictive forecasts are important extra sources of information for users such as financial controllers, supply chain planners, and sales representatives, to make decisions using their business acumen and knowledge.

The automated machine learning capabilities in SAP Analytics Cloud can assist users to enhance business decision-making.

Graph showing planning elements

Machine Learning Helps Planners Take Confident Decisions with SAP Analytics Cloud Predictive Planning

Equation showing historical data plus machine learning
  • Predictive forecasting automates the creation of baseline planning models.
  • Planners then supplement these forecasts based on business acumen.
  • Planners monitor plan attainment based on continuously updated predictions.
  • SAP Analytics Cloud predictive planning supports top-down and bottom-up planning processes–enabling the planner to automatically build forecasts at the correct level of detail.

Predictive Forecasting Combines the Power of Planning and Predictive

Planners can use time series forecasting at large scale to support key use cases related to expense forecasting, sales planning, and/or workforce planning, for example. They can then complement the planning and budgeting activities with a data-driven approach to planning.

Planners benefit from Smart Predict capabilities to generate predicted forecasts, considering one or several business dimensions. Smart Predict allows them to analyze forecast accuracy by dimension value and understand signal breakdown in detail.

Planners select a planning model as the input of Smart Predict, generate segmented predictive models, and deliver predictive forecasts in the planning grid in a few clicks.

Your input is minimal: actuals are used by default. Only relevant columns are displayed and selection of multiple dimensions is supported for bottom-up forecasting.

Integrated Predictive Functions

  1. Augment time series charts and line charts with predictive forecasts: Chart showing predictive forecast
  2. Create predictive models with greater levels of control using Smart Predict (including bottom-up time series models) and serve both SAP Analytics Cloud BI and planning needs:Forecasts, classifications, and regressions used to create Smart Predict elements

Combine Augmented Analytics Time Series Forecasting Models with Planning

Run a Predictive Time Series Forecast from a Planning Model

  1. Prepare the data by importing actual data from a source system or from a flat file into an SAP Analytics Cloud planning model.A table in a story is highlighted.
  2. Create a table in a story to display the actual values. The Predictive Forecast icon is highlighted in the story.
  3. Copy Actuals to new Private Version for Predictive Forecast values.The Create Predictive Forecast dialog
  4. Create Predictive Scenario for Time Series Forecast and generate Forecast values.
    • Select the data source and specify which Version to use for the forecast to input the data. By default, the Actual version is used.
    • Specify Target Measures and Date dimension for calculating the Forecast values.
    • Specify number of Forecast Periods and Entities – the dimension(s) identifying each entity that you want to get forecast for.
    • Under Predictive Model Training, select All Observations for Train using and Last Observation for Until, so the whole range of observations will be used to train the predictive model.
    • Turn on the Convert Negative Forecast Values to Zero option, so no negative values are generated in the results.
    • Select Train and Forecast to generate Forecast values.
    Table with predicted values added.
  5. If you are happy with the Forecast Overview and Forecast details, display forecast values in existing story.Forecast values displayedstory with forecast

Business Scenario

You have been asked to create a time series forecasting model output with an SAP Analytics Cloud planning model.

The data you have been provided is as follows:

  • Monthly sales for a five-year period. This is the date variable.
  • Sales for six car brands in six countries. This is the target variable.
  • Not all brands are sold in all countries. This is used for entity definition.
  • Each country is associated with one of two regions (EMEA north and south). Region becomes a property of the Country.

The data is used as the input of a time series predictive scenario with the goal of forecasting the evolution of car sales segmented by country and brand for the next 12 months.

Task Flow: In this practice exercise, you will:

  1. Create planning model from CSV file
  2. Create a story and private version for forecast values
  3. Train forecasting models and inspect their quality. Then write forecasts back into planning model and use them in story

Task 1: Create Data Model

ExerciseStart Exercise

Task 2: Create a Story and Private Planning Version

ExerciseStart Exercise

Task 3: Train Forecasting Model in Smart Predict and View it in the Story

ExerciseStart Exercise

Learning

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