Manual Forecasting

Objective

After completing this lesson, you will be able to perform Manual Forecasting.

Manual Forecasting

Manual forecasting is useful if no reference product is available or if the potential references aren't similar enough to the new product, for example, regarding trend or seasonality. Using the manual forecast option, you can create a forecast for the new product that's based on your planning experience.

You can decide for each product whether manual forecasting shall be applied. You can also define a Manual Forecast End. Once this date is reached, statistical forecasting is used instead of the manual forecast parameters.

Prerequisites and settings for manual forecasting are entered in the following apps:

  • The Manual Forecasting option in the Manage Forecast Models app needs to be selected. If manual forecasting is selected, demand sensing isn't available.
  • Several settings in the Settings for Product Lifecycle app make the simulation of manual forecasting more efficient.The figure describes how to enabling manual forecasting in the settings for Product Lifecycle App.
  • Manual forecasting can be accessed directly via the Manual Forecast tile.The figure shows the Manual Forecasting App.

Perform Manual Forecast

ExerciseStart Exercise

The Demand Planner wants to perform manual forecasting based on his/her planning experience because there is no reference product available to forecast this new product.

Steps

  1. In the Manual Forecasting app, set up a manual forecasting profile and define the product and launch dimensions. Note: Products where a profile already exists cannot be selected. You can use location as a launch dimension.

    1. Log in to the SAP Fiori Web UI.

    2. In the Demand Planner group, choose the Manual Forecasting tile.

    3. Choose planning area ZSAP6. Choose Add → Single Forecast Date, select a different product of your assigned product set HT_###, which has not been used in the previous exercise. Choose a launch dimension, for example, Location ID.

    4. Choose a Unit of Measure for Base and Trend value as KG and periodicity Weekly.

    5. Choose OK.

    6. Choose the location HD_DC_FR, and set the Forecast Start Date to Today's date, Phase-In Start Date to Today's date, and Phase-In End Date to Today's date + 6 months.

    7. Select the Base Value radio button and enter a quantity of 15.

    8. Choose OK and then choose Save.

  2. Use the SimpleMovingAvg## Forecast Profile you updated previously to execute a forecast for your HT_### product, which you have defined in the previous step, at the Product ID and Location ID level.

    1. In the Microsoft Excel UI Application Jobs section, choose Statistical Forecasting → Run.

    2. A message will pop up informing you that the settings of the view will be copied over to the job prompt. Choose Ok.

    3. Ensure that the Product ID and LocationID attributes are selected.

    4. Choose Weekly as the Time Period.

    5. Select your SimpleMovingAvg## Forecast Profile.

    6. Choose UOM To ID KG and Baseline.

    7. Select the Filter tab and select your HT_### product.

    8. Choose Next and Run (the Reason Code and Comment are optional).

    9. A message will pop up informing you of the status of the job with navigation to the status. Choose Navigate to Status to see the status of the job or choose OK to close the pop up.

    10. Optionally, check the planning run by choosing Statistical Forecasting→Status.

    11. When the status shows as completed, go to the next exercise step.

  3. In your demand planning favorite, update your Prod ## filter.

    1. In the add-in for Microsoft Excel, choose Favorites → Demand Planning.

    2. In the Planning View section, choose Filter → Edit.

    3. Add your HT_### Product ID and HD_DC_FR location ID and choose Update.

    4. Make sure STATISTICALFCSTQTY (Statistical Forecast Qty) KF is added to the planning view.

    5. Choose OK to display your planning view and stay in the planning view for the next step.

  4. Review the STATISTICALFCSTQTY (Statistical Forecast Qty) KF values. Remove Customer ID from your planning view, if it is still selected from a previous exercise.

    Result

    The values should be updated with the Quantity for Product HT_### and location HD_DC_FR combination that you entered in step 1.

Learning

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